Sunday, January 14, 2007

Forget Aluminum - Blame China and Forest Fires

I haven't yet had a chance to watch video of the Kirby-Allen debate, but there have been some informal assessments from people who were there. I hear David Kirby put on a show, albeit a fact-free one, which is not surprising. I have blogged about David Kirby's intolerable love affair with fabrications and unsubstantiated claims in the past. While Mr. Allen probably did his outmost to stay within the bounds of scientific fact and rational discourse, David Kirby apparently relied on off-topic speculation, showmanship and made-up excuses.

As widely predicted, mercury militants have not come clean after the California DDS 3-5 caseload failed to drop in 2007. The thimerosal hypothesis is officially pseudo-science, as its proponents continue to shift the falsifiability goalposts to increasingly ridiculous lengths. One of the most bewildering excuses I've seen is that the aluminum dose has increased in vaccines as thimerosal was phased out.

And it's not just David Kirby who has established goalposts he has later decided to ignore. JB Handley has said the following:

Late 2006 should be the first time that rates go down. If they don't, our hypothesis will need to be reexamined.


David Kirby does deserve some credit for imagination. He came up with to-date unheard-of excuses that play on people's justified concerns about environmental pollution and climate change. This was in addition to the usual excuses. I will now address the whole list of excuses as recalled by Vera Smith in the EOHarm mailing list on January 13, 2007.

1. California has a lot of HMOs (50% of population) who probably continued to use mercury vaccines longer than average.

This is clearly unfounded speculation. What is the evidence that HMOs used mercury longer than average? How much longer?

2. We do not know when 25 mcg infant vaccines really made it off the shelves. When the CDC says the supply was down to 2% in 2003 (I think that was the stat) it was not official. They called vaccine providers and asked what was in the fridge -- not a definitive answer.

The information Arthur Allen provided is from the minutes of a CDC meeting held on February 20-21, 2002 at the Atlanta Marriott North Central Hotel. The following is an excerpt of the minutes:

Mr. Dean Mason presented a chart of the thimerosal-containing vaccines/toxoids in the pediatric schedule and under the C.D.C. contract (not all of which are licensed in the U.S.). N.I.P. estimated the amount of thimerosal in provider vaccine inventories in a survey conducted September 20, 2001 to February 20, 2002. The targets were a convenience sample of providers getting site visits from public health officials across the country. Inventory counts were done of all refrigerators for D.T.a.P., Hib, and hep B pediatric vaccines. The thimerosal classification was based on the lot number information, which was verified by the manufacturers.

In September 2001, 225 sites were canvassed, and 447 by February 2002. The decline in thimerosal-containing vaccine went from 5.6 percent to 1.9%, from 33,500 doses out of 63,600; to 2,796 doses out of 149,147. These were delineated by D.T.a.P., D.T.P., Hib, hep B-Hib, and hep B. Hep B rose from 4.95 percent to 7.5%; the proportion that is pediatric (10 microgram) versus adolescent versus adult (5 microgram) still requires evaluation. However, the N.I.P. thinks that most of it is pediatric.

(Emphasis mine)

David Kirby and Arthur Allen on Fox 6I wonder what part of "site visits" David Kirby got confused about. In fairness, he probably didn't even get a chance to read the minutes of the meeting. In the warm-up debate on Fox 6 it was clear that Arthur Allen surprised David Kirby with the information about the sharp decline in thimerosal uptake. Kirby looked like a deer in the headlights, but he had one whole day to make stuff up.

Was David Kirby suggesting that physicians lied about what they had in their fridges? Were they supposed to have made up lot numbers? This obviously borders on the preposterous. Besides, it is known that the lifecycle of vaccines is not too long.

Let's move on.

3. Calif has had horrendous forest fires over the last 5 years (much more so than the previous 20), and pregnant women are breathing the fumes. Forrest fires release a lot more mercury than even coal fired power plants.

Oh my. It is true that forest fires have increased in California, and this is attributed to global warming. The increase is not something that just started to happen in the last 5 years, however; rather, there is an increasing trend that starts in about 1987 (source). The forest-fires-cause-autism hypothesis lacks merit, and I suspect most people can see the utter nonsense of Kirby's proposition. For one, a substantial number of the autistic children currently diagnosed would be expected to live around forested areas in California. It is easy to verify that this is not the case. In fact, autistic children tend to be diagnosed more often in areas with high population density. Second, if this new hypothesis were true, a clear season-of-birth trend would have been noticed.

4. The horrific coal generated mercury pollution from China (as we have been reading) is getting worse and the mercury by-product is brought into CA (particularly So Cal) from the jet stream. These coal fired power plants have expontially increased since 2000.

Interestingly, mercury militants have blamed the US for "poisoning" children in China with thimerosal. Now David Kirby is blaming China for sending contaminants to the US.

It is true that pollution from China is deposited in the western US, and coal emissions are estimated to increase about 10% per year (source). Let's suppose this is currently a major cause of autism in California, which would need to be for Kirby's excuse to make sense. How would it explain large differences in the prevalence of autism from one regional center to the next? More importantly, how does it explain large differences in the current pace of caseload increase between regional centers? (The "epidemic" of autism is in full swing in the Central Valley Regional Center, for example, with an annual caseload growth rate of about 24%).

5. The CDC recommended flu shots for pregnant women and infants. As Kirby pointed out, that merucry exposure to an in-utero infant from a flu shot could be as devasting (paraphrasing here) as the entire US vaccine schedule of the 1990s given that an in-utero baby is a fraction the size of an infant. Allen refuted this argument that only 25% of California infants get the flu vaccine and only 13% of pregnant women get it.

It should be noted that the flu vaccine is not recommended for infants under 6 months of age. Even if we were to assume that all children get the flu vaccine, thimerosal exposure from this is much lower than pre-epidemic levels of exposure. Regarding vaccination of pregnant women, are we to assume a substantial portion of autistic children currently diagnosed were born from the small percentage of mothers vaccinated against the flu while pregnant? What is the evidence that this is the case? What is the evidence that the fetus receives a substantial portion of the mercury the mother is injected with? Would this mean that all children who became autistic this way have early-onset autism?

To recap, Kirby has provided a list of excuses aimed at obfuscating the evident failure of a bad hypothesis. None of the mechanisms he proposes can be correlated to changes in California autism caseload trends. The excuses are based on far-fetched, easily refuted speculation, stuff he made up that came out of nowhere, and in at least one case, an outright fabrication.


  1. As Jerry Pournelle said, you can prove *anything* if you make up your data.

  2. The "plume of mercury" argument is just silly. We are expected to believe that the increase in environmental mercury just happened to exactly balance out the effects of decreasing the vaccine mercury. This is ridiculous. If environmental mercury were to blame, one would expect to see some ups and downs in the 3-5 year olds diagnosed with autism in California - not the beautiful straight line that has been observed.

    Kirby's true fans will not like this argument. They want the cause to be vaccines, and nothing else. Kirby, on the other hand will want to say, "It was true that thimerosal was to blame when I wrote my book. That's no longer true, but it is STILL mercury. I was right."

  3. The "plume of mercury" argument is just silly. We are expected to believe that the increase in environmental mercury just happened to exactly balance out the effects of decreasing the vaccine mercury.

    Exactly. And they would've had to match a sharp decline in thimerosal (per the CDC meeting) with a gradual increase in coal emissions of about 10% every year. The caseload trends don't support this kind of thing. They look too natural.

    It was worse with the aluminum excuse, because there you have to make a leap in assuming that thimerosal and aluminum are interchangeable as autism risk factors.

  4. First Class! When does the Chinese mercury plume reach us in the UK? Our autism rates have always exceeded America's even though our mercury exposure has always been less.

  5. That's the other thing, Mike. If Kirby's excuses relating to forest fires and China were true, there should've been a decline in autism incidence in the east US, Europe, east Canada, and so on. Maybe anywhere outside California. I do not believe incidence has ever dropped anywhere. Kirby is trying to explain away the numbers by claiming that California is too special. Can the whole thing get more ridiculous?

  6. A. Anderson Handleykins1/14/2007 5:18 PM

    Mike, Mike, Mike...

    (tsk) Don't you know that the Chinese are sending MERCURY to the US (out of revenge for the epidemic of autism the US caused there with TCV's, of course) but the Chinese (you can't trust them, they're inscrutable, you know...) are sending plumes of measles virus, mixed with rubella and mumps, of course, to the UK.

    Come now, like you need to have this explained???

  7. Handleykins,
    you set me thinking. Isn't all the bird flu coming from china? which means more flu vaccine, which means more thimerosal ... of course!

  8. How much do you want to bet a completely useless in vitro animal study from the SafeMinds-funded "science mongers" is coming any day now? And that said study will be accompanied by numerous press releases and all sorts of strident "I told you so" bleating on the EOSmarm board?

  9. I think I've heard a rumor about what you're saying, Anonimouse. What I'm wondering is what happened to the AZ chelation study. Jim Adams said he'd have results by late 2006. He also said he'd report the results whatever they were.

  10. Two points: 1. Who says it has to be thimerasol at blame? China has had forest fires before without known documentation of Autism. There are many trade held perservatives that may create reactions in the genetically disposed. This is identifiable and traceable under test studies, but try getting true results under the thumb of Big Pharma. 2. Remember the Amish? No one wants to but no the figures are obvious and in the face of the rest of America. Three Amish autistic children found. Of the three, one was vaccinated in China and adopted afterword (scratch her), the other two were vaccinated as well. Even though vaccinations are not part of the Amish civilization any more than cars and telephones, some Amish choose not to honor parts of their traditions (some own devilish cars and phones and have actually vaccinated their children). So, 0 Amish that have not been vaccinated have been diagnosed with Autism. What does that mean to you?

  11. Do you know that the international symbol for a toxin is displayed on vials of thimerosal?

    There is no question about the neurotoxicity of mercury.

    Mercury is most potent neurotoxic substance known to man.

    Mercury is the 3rd most toxic substance on earth.

    Here's a link from the CDC website to prove this if you doubt me: (page 12)

    "Methyl mercury is the most toxicological form of the element and, by its accumulation in the central nervous system (CNS), may result in neurotoxic effects in adults and toxicity in the fetuses of mothers exposed to methyl mercury during pregnancy." - the US Centers for Disease Control

    Every enzyme or cell function that's inhibited by autism, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, etc is overwhelmingly caused by mercury.

    "Mercury exposure causes a biochemical train wreck in patient's body. It inhibits every metabolic pathway, just some systems more than others. In the brain we know mercury causes tubulin to depolymerize (break down), creating neurofibrillary tangles, a diagnostic hallmark of Alzheimer's disease (ALZ). It inhibits the enzyme creatine kinase, which is 97% inhibited in Alzheimer's diseased (AD) brains compared to normal brains used as controls. Mercury inhibits the enzyme glutamine synthetase, which takes glutamate and converts it back to a nontoxic amino acid, and it's been reported several times that glutamate is elevated in AD brains." - Dr. Boyd E Haley, PhD

    Thimerosal (ethylmercury) has recently been found to be the most toxic form of mercury by Dr. Thomas Burbacher who published his findings on monkeys and various types of mercury exposure.

    Other toxins play a role, too. Such as pesticides, preservatives, and other toxins that induce the same symptoms as these neurological disorders.

    Carcinogens and toxins as vaccine ingredients:
    - Acetone (toxin)
    - Aluminum (neurotoxin)
    - Benzethonium chloride (toxin)
    - Calf serum
    - Chick embryo
    - Cowpox pus
    - Decomposed fecal matter from ill typhoid patients for typhoid serum
    - Dog kidney tissue
    - Ethylene glycol (antifreeze)
    - Formaldehyde (carcinogen, toxin)
    - Horse blood
    - Monkey kidney cell culture
    - Mucous from the throats of ill children with colds and whooping cough for whooping cough serum
    - Neomyoine
    - Phenol (toxin)
    - Phosphate
    - Pig blood
    - Pulverized felt hats for tetanus serum
    - Pus from sores on diseased cows for small pox serums
    - Rabbit brain tissue
    - Rotten horse blood for diphtheria toxin and antitoxin
    - Sodium
    - Sweepings from vacuum cleaners for asthma and hay fever
    - Thimerosal (neurotoxin) -- MOST TOXIC

    Phenol was used by the Nazi's at Auschwitz to exterminate the Jews because it's an effective lethal injection toxin.

    Symptoms of Phenol:
    Irritation eyes, nose, throat; anorexia, weight loss; LASSITUDE (weakness, exhaustion), MUSCLE ACHE, pain; dark urine; cyanosis; liver, kidney damage; skin burns; dermatitis; ochronosis; TREMOR, CONVULSIONS, TWITCHING

    Benzethonium chloride causes a "neuromuscular blockade," or a failure in neuromuscular transmission, which is typically seen in patients with Parkinson's. (tremors)


    The symptoms in caps are common symptoms of Alzheimer's, Parkinson's. Note that patients with ALZ share a variety of symptoms since mercury affects all systems of the body.

    You belong to the same crowd that used to say that prolonged exposures from smoking doesn't contribute to cancer in any way.

    You spew junk science. How can you trust the CDC and others when they're to blame for this epidemic?

    Would you trust a serial killer to be his own judge, jury, and executioner?

    Do you even know what free radicals are?

    What kind of education do you have? What scientific reports have you read? What kind of expert are you?

    If you'd like, I can send you about a dozen peer reviewed research papers published in medical journals that point to mercury exposures causing NDs (neurological disorders).

    I actually read reports on both sides of the argument and contact the CDC and others involved in the cover up, biochemists and other scientists in related fields, and get the facts for myself instead of watching something on the nightly news brought to you by _____ fill in the blank giant medical conglomerate.

    I'd be more than happy to send you my white research paper once it's done since it establishes without a doubt that toxins are causing neurological disorders.

    And yes, blame China, but the US is to blame for the bulk of pollution.

    So blame America, but blame the industrial age, greed, and a general nearsightedness of future planning.

    Best regards,
    Deniz Yeter

    First European survivor of Kawasaki Syndrome, a rare form of Congenital-Onset Acrodynia

    PS: Since I suffered from mercury poisoning between the ages of 1 and 3 and still suffer from various symptoms till this day, I can relate to autistics and know why mercury causes their disorder along with MS and countless others.




    You don't realize that a study takes a few years, and that you don't have every case of autism in 2005 until it's diagnosed 4 years later on average (44 month average to diagnose a case of autism.)

    I asked the CDC how much thimerosal was in vaccines and this is what they told me:

    46% in 1999 (after beginning of removal)

    7% in 2003 (mainly flushots)

    So, if a child were receiving thimerosal-containing vaccines in 2003, they would still be getting diagnosed in 2007 or later.

    Thimerosal is still in 26% of adult vaccines, which also causes a prenatal exposure.

  12. I doubt you'll accept my comment since you only have people agreeing with you on here.

    I'd love to educate you about mercury if you'd like to bring an open, but scrutinizing mind.

    I source all of my claims and work with scientists in this, so I'm no junk scientist and I can debunk all claims you can make.

    I have no doubt in my capability, I would love to go toe to toe with the CDC or Arthur Allen.

  13. Greg from Oregon3/18/2009 1:13 PM

    You can't be serious? What difference does it make what neurotoxin the pharaceutical companies use to affect the brains of kids? They removed thimerisol and then said autism cases didn't greatly decrease. But they failed to tell the American public that they replaced the thimerisol with aluminum, another neurotoxin that directly affects the human brain like mercury does. It is a bait and switch game by the drug companies who refuse to quit poisoning the children of our nation. I challenge anyone to prove this information to be incorrect. It is well known that aluminum is now in childhood vaccines, as the replacement for thimerisol. Aluminum is stated by the NIH (National Institute Of Health) as being a brain affecting neurotoxin.

  14. They removed thimerisol and then said autism cases didn't greatly decrease.

    Didn't greatly decrease? More like: Didn't decrease at all. Administratively, they continued to increase.

    But they failed to tell the American public that they replaced the thimerisol with aluminum, another neurotoxin that directly affects the human brain like mercury does.

    Can you show that the dose of Aluminum in pediatric vaccines increased by a couple order of magnitudes between 1999 and 2002? Can you show that the symptoms of aluminum poisioning are the same as those of mercury poisoning? Can you show that aluminum poisoning is associated with autism?

    If you can't show any of these things, can you admit it's an idea without foundation, fabricated out of thin air?

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